In the last week or so, I’ve read probably two dozen articles or essays about what will happen in the midterms in just over 30 days. And there is finally a consensus, if you can believe it. This is what it is:
No one has a clue what’s going to happen.
To illustrate why I’ve come to this conclusion, let me pull out just 3 points I’ve read. We’ll start with Political Wire, my favorite go-to source of drama-free political info. The founder and editor, Taegan Goddard summed up the midterms like this:
“With just over a month to go until the midterms, it’s clear we’re headed for another wave election. But this one features two waves rushing towards each other and they’re set to collide on November 8.”
Then, Charlie Cook, of the esteemed Cook Political Report (which is one of the main groups that publishes race ratings) wrote an essay saying there’s no telling what will happen because there is so much noise pointing in both parties’ directions. He finished that essay with this:
“The unprecedented situation of this midterm election and the volatility we have seen over the last few months demand a bit of humility employed in this year’s prognostication. It isn’t a bad thing any year, but this year in particular.”
And then after reading poll after poll, i read what Montana’s Democratic Senator had to say about polling, and I have to say, at this point I agree with him 100%:
“I don’t believe the polls anymore. I just don’t. After Montana: throw them away. I don’t think there’s any accuracy.” (He was referring back to how the state’s Democratic governor polled incredibly well leading up to the 2020 Senate race, and then lost badly.)
I’m putting this all in a blog post because I know that the media will obsess over new polls and talking with pundits who will try to bank on the winner in the hopes that they can continue building their career as a pundit. But those of us who care about this country and don’t want it to descend into the autocratic darkness that the Republicans are hellbent on taking us, need to actively ignore any prognostications about the midterms.
In July, I was starting to feel really good about the Democrats’ chances but now, I realize I have NO IDEA if the Democrats will do well or not. And there’s so much at stake, it makes my stomach hurt thinking about it. All I know is what I’ve been saying at this blog since I started it: Worrying will get us nowhere. Taking action is the antidote to worry.
So with that, my dear readers, I implore you once again to find ways in these final 34 days to take action. Make sure you’re registered to vote and know how to vote in your state, then get going to get more folks like us to the polls. Donate to the politicians who you want to see in office. Remind friends, family, colleagues to make a plan to vote. Get involved with a phone or text banking activity to reach voters in key districts.
And if you need help getting connected to one of these activities, please reach out. I read my comments both here at the blog and at my social media accounts. Let’s get this done!
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