Is California On the Verge of Turning Red?

California Governor Gavin Newsom (D)

When you think of a reliably “blue” state, California’s on your list, right?

Well, there is increasingly worrying news coming out regarding the upcoming recall of Democratic governor Gavin Newsom. Why is he being recalled? Conservatives angry at Newsom for all the restrictions he put in place when COVID19 hit are the primary driving force behind the recall.

When voters receive their ballots — which start getting sent out on August 15 — they will be asked two questions. First, should Gavin Newsom be recalled, or not? The second question is, if Newsom is recalled, who should replace him? And there is a list of roughly 40 candidates to choose from.

If a majority vote No, he won’t be recalled and will continue to be governor. But, if a majority of voters vote Yes, then election officials will look at how voters answered the second question. And here’s the first problem — a poll came out this week that showed half of the voters want to recall him, and half don’t. It’s a dead heat. Newsom must get more than 50% of voters to vote No on the recall in order for him to stay in office.

The second problem comes into play if Newsom is recalled. I mentioned there are ~40 candidates who qualified for the ballot. Well, the Republicans are starting to coalesce around one of the Republican candidates, whereas I haven’t seen a similar coalescing around a single Democratic candidate. Whichever candidate gets the most votes becomes governor if Newsom is recalled. They don’t need to win a majority! And with so many candidates, the new governor could win with a tiny percentage of votes.

Circling back to my opening statement, that is, that California is reliably blue, is another reason to worry. Regular readers of Political Charge have heard me say this before, but I need to say it again — Democrats are notoriously bad at turning out for special elections, whereas Republicans turn out no matter what. (The blue wave of 2018 was an exception.) Couple that fact with the complacency I’ve already seen from people who are unbothered by the recall election because California is “so blue” is a recipe for disaster.

We cannot let complacency win. We cannot allow COVID denying conservative activists win. All of us — no matter what state we’re in — can help get the word out that this recall election is tight, and encourage every voter to return their ballots. Again, ballots will be sent to voters’ homes in about 10 days. Ballots must arrive by September 14.

Please spread the word so as many Californians see the message to vote No on the recall and return their ballots ASAP!!


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5 replies

  1. And your point is precisely why I am phone banking to vote NO on the recall.

  2. I’m in Minnesota. Is there a specific fund to donate to to support the vote NO effort? It’s clear that the result matters to all of us.

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