Please, Don’t Sleep On the 2022 Midterms

Are you thinking about the 2022 Midterms yet? I sure hope so.

I read a report by elections analyst Harry Enten at CNN yesterday that should give us all a dose of reality. You can read the article, Why very early signs are good for the GOP in 2022, but here are the critical points:

The advantage the Democrats have on the generic ballot (when pollsters ask people which party they’d vote for without using the names of specific politicians) is about the same as it was prior to the election. So, despite the high approval rate of President Biden, we haven’t seen any corresponding increase in support for the party since the election. And, he reminds us, that pollsters have regularly underestimated Republican support at the polls. So that 4% advantage we currently have could easily be erased.

The other thing we have going against us is our turnout at midterms. Especially when a Democrat is president. Now, it is absolutely true that we did an amazing job of turning out the vote in the 2018 midterms. But… that was an aberration from the past. By a lot. Here’s what happened with Democratic turnout in the midterms during President Obama’s 1st term:

What you see in that graph is Democratic turnout dropping by 40% after we voted Obama to the presidency. Once he was in office, we just tuned out completely. The SAME thing happened in the midterms in his 2nd term but that time, our turnout dropped by 47% from the presidential election. We lost over 1,000 state legislative seats in the process.

We CANNOT let that happen again in 2022. We are collectively going to have to do what Georgia did back in January for those two Senate races. We need to turn out as many of the 81 million Americans who turned out for Biden to turn out again next fall.

Because the data tells us that Republican turnout does NOT drop after a presidential election as much as Democratic turnout does. And, they are being force fed fear and lies by right-wing media. And that media ecosystem is devastatingly effective. You might have seen that a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 55% of Republicans not only believe the January 6 insurrection was led by violent left-wing protestors but also that 60% believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. Those folks are going to turn out in DROVES.

Our margins are so slim in both the House and the Senate, and our state legislatures are overrun by Republicans, who worked year in and year out for two decades to shore up their power in the states. Our time to reverse their damage is now.

What we can do

It may seem like we’re a long ways from the 2022 elections, but protecting our democracy is year-round work. Whether you have many hours a week to volunteer, or just a little time on the weekends to spare, there is something you can do to help keep voters engaged and in the know. Here are a few examples.

Voter registration – Getting voters registered to vote is an activity you can do year round. And now, with all of these voter suppression bills being proposed, and getting passed, in the states, chances are better than ever that Republicans will be throwing eligible voters off the rolls and making it harder for them to vote. Read 15 Ways You Can Help Get More People Registered to Vote and choose one activity to dive into.

Get involved with special elections – Regular Political Charge readers know I publish an elections calendar every month. You can always do a quick search for this month’s calendar. Pick one of the elections on there and help out the Democratic candidate! Besides donating, you can share their information on social media, you can volunteer with their office digitally, find out if they have any digital events you can participate in, etc. You can always check what postcard campaigns are also happening and sign up to send a handful.

Get involved with a community organizing group – We saw how effective Fair Fight and New Georgia Project were in Georgia. Get involved with an organization that does similar work, i.e. galvanizing a community of voters year round to affect change at the polls. Swing Left and Sister District are other examples. If you’re not sure what a similar organization might be in your state, send me a message. I’ll do my best to give you some ideas.

The most important thing, though, is to take action. And do it now.


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Categories: Elections, Take Action

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2 replies

  1. Tokyo, as an Independent voter, while the Democrats are not perfect, the Republican party continues to fall to even lower levels. The party which used to stand for something is now a party of lies, conspiracies and fear. And, the people who are at the top of this party are aided and abetted by sycophants who are talk show hosts, who do not mind looking at their audience and lying to them. Again, the Dems are not perfect, but they seem to care about policy issues, whether folks agree with them or not. At this time, I have absolutely no idea what the Republican party stands for, other than a deceitful and seditious former president. As former Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner said of the former president’s Deep State claims, he called them “horseshit.” And, Trump appointed AG William Barr called the former president’s election fraud claims “bullshit” to his face and got fired. These are not beat around the bush words. Keith

    • No politician is perfect, and I think people get disillusioned by politics because they do expect perfection. What matters are the values and policies that govt officials are working on, and I don’t see a GOP official anywhere that’s working to pass bills that help the American people.

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