Election 2020: Which State Legislatures Could Flip?

Interior of the Texas State Legislature

We have a chance this November to take control of several state legislatures back from the Republicans. And this is crucially important this year, because 2020 is a census year. That means that whoever is in charge of state legislatures following the November election will be drawing the district maps that will be in place for the next decade.

And while the Democrats have historically focused a lot of their organizing on federal elections, they’ve been investing much more heavily in the states. It’s been awesome to see headlines such as:  Democrats plan $50M campaign to flip state legislatures before redistricting

Preventing Republicans from gerrymandering all of these states again would be amazing. Now, here are the 11 state legislative chambers that are really competitive this year, and that need our attention:

State chambers that could flip

ARIZONA, House & Senate – Each chamber is within 2-3 flips of switching to a Democratic majority. Flipping a chamber would also mean ending the current Republican trifecta in the state (meaning they have control of the governorship and both state legislative chambers.)

FLORIDA, Senate – The Democrats are within 3 flips of breaking the Republicans’ majority in the Senate, and doing so would break the Republican trifecta in the state.

IOWA, House – The Republicans currently have a trifecta but we could break that by flipping 4 seats in the state House. In 2018 we decreased the Republican majority to put us in strong contention for this flip.

MICHIGAN, House – In 2018, we decreased the Republican majority to put us within 4 flips of taking majority control of the House.

MINNESOTA, Senate – Back in 2016, the Republicans flipped the Senate. But in 2020, it’s our opportunity to flip it back to the Democrats with just 2 flips. Also, if we flip their Senate, Democrats will have a trifecta.

NORTH CAROLINA, House & Senate – In 2018, the Democrats broke the Republicans’ supermajority in both chambers, and in 2020, we have the opportunity to take control of both chambers. We’re within 4-6 flips of that reality.

PENNSYLVANIA, House & Senate – The Democrats have been chipping away at the Republican majority and are in striking distance of flipping the House and the Senate.

TEXAS, House – There is a massive effort to flip the Texas House; even Beto O’Rourke is pitching in to make this flip a reality. It’ll be competitive, but it is possible – Cook Political Report has rated this as only “Lean Republican.”

How you can help

If you live in one of these states, you should get involved with your local Democratic party as they have many active voter outreach activities you can join virtually. If you’re outside of these states, I recommend one of the following:

Swing Left is organizing phone banks for most of these states, which fall into their Super State strategy. Check HERE to find the state you want to help turn out voters and sign up for their phone bank.

Mobilize Us is the central event hub for all campaign activities for Democratic candidates. Whether you want to help with a text bank, phone bank, literature drop, etc. this site has you covered. You can filter the events by type, location, or campaign.

If you have trouble finding an event for the campaign you’re most interested in, leave me a comment or email me and I’ll do the best I can to hook you up with a good opportunity.

Let’s do this!!


Get Out the Vote Tip of the Day: Take a picture of you mailing your sealed ballot or your “I Voted” sticker and share it widely. Research proves there is a powerful psychology at work that encourages others to follow suit and vote!

Get the rest of my tips here: 19 Quick Ways to Turn Out the Vote in 2020

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