Flip the Senate: Checking in on Arizona, North Carolina & Montana

Winning the White House without retaking the Senate is not what we want. Without the Senate, Joe Biden won’t be able to do much legislatively. Without the Senate, Mitch McConnell will pull every trick in the book to block every Supreme Court nomination.

We must win the Senate. So, let’s look at what’s going on in some of the most competitive races this cycle.

Mark Kelly (D) – Arizona

Mark Kelly is the Democratic candidate working to flip the seat that Senator Martha McSally currently holds. New polls indicate that Kelly’s lead is still strong, but some caution is warranted. One poll showed him up by five, while one showed a stunning, and improbable, 17 point lead. Earlier this summer, Cook Political Report did move the race out of the “Toss Up” category and into “Lean Democrat.”

The campaigns are working out a debate schedule, with Kelly’s team accepting 2 debates and an increasingly desperate McSally demanding up to 7 debates. There isn’t much time left for this race, as early voting starts in Arizona in 5 weeks.

Want to help Mark Kelly flip this Senate seat? Here’s how you can help.

Cal Cunningham (D) – North Carolina

Cal Cunningham is also running ahead of incumbent Senator Thom Tillis in the polls, but by a narrower margin — between 3-5 points. Interestingly, just like in Arizona, it’s the incumbent asking the challenger for more debates. Tillis wants a nationally televised debate, while Cunningham has only agreed to debates that are focused in North Carolina.

Earlier this week, VoteVets announced they were launching a $2.7 million ad campaign to boost Cunningham’s candidacy. Cunningham served active duty tours in Iraq and Afghanistan with the Army Reserve. The ads will hit Tillis for votes he made that were counter to the interests of veterans.

You can watch a short interview Cunningham did recently HERE.

Want to help Cal Cunningham flip this Senate seat? Here’s how you can help.

Steve Bullock (D) – Montana

Steve Bullock, who is currently the governor of Montana, is aiming to unseat Senator Steve Daines this fall. The race has already been named “the battle of the Steves” in the local press, and highlight what a unique state Montana is. The polls for this race have been very close, and pretty much always within the margin of error. This polling is incredible when you recall that Trump won the state in 2016 by a whopping 20 points.

Montana is interesting in that it has elected a lot of Democrats in the past few decades as governors and senators, but is solidly Republican in the state legislative chambers. But for president, it has been solidly Republican outside of Bill Clinton’s second election. Voters there split the ticket fairly regularly.

Senator Daines has tied himself pretty closely to Trump, and that puts him in an awkward spot when it comes to COVID-19. Governor Bullock has received high marks from Montanans for his handling of the pandemic. Healthcare was also a big topic at their first debate. Gov. Bullock has done quite a lot for Montana, including working with the legislature to expand Medicaid, whereas Senator Daines voted with his colleagues to get rid of the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare).

Want to help Steve Bullock flip this Senate seat? Here’s how you can help.

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2 replies

  1. TokyoSand, all three of these candidate deserve to unseat the incumbents. Living in NC, Cunningham is an excellent candidate with his military background.

    As for Tillis, let me share two true stories that people should know. As Speaker of the NC House, a late night budget vote was at an impasse. So, Speaker Tillis sent everyone home; but he told his Republican colleagues to stay close and immediately recalled people back in the chamber. Dems hustled to get back, but only enough to provide a quorum. The new vote passed. This is extremely poor form and I argue that it is unethical.

    The second story is a House member voted incorrectly at her seat and went to the Speaker to change her vote. He would not let her do it and the vote passed by one. For all his machinations, he did something offensive for naught. The vote was to allow fracking in NC, but the fossil fuel industry already told the state that fracking was not prudent and would not have a ROI. So, he screwed someone over for nothing.

    The above are true stories. If you want to stick to policy, Tillis has been a major reason Medicaid expansion has not occurred in NC.


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