So, there’s good news and some bad news regarding our goal to flip the Senate this November.
First, the good news.
Yesterday, the Democrats got a big win when Steve Bullock, the current governor of Montana (and former presidential candidate), filed to run for the U.S. Senate. He is termed out as governor and quite popular in the state. He knows how to win statewide offices in Montana and, of course, has HUGE name ID. His entry into the race catapulted this race from a Solid Republican rating, skipped over Likely Republican, and moved all the way to Lean Republican. Some ratings outlets think it might be even more competitive than that.
Check out his first ad, touting the accomplishments he’s brought to the state:
Help him get a great start to his campaign by following him on Twitter, donating to his campaign, and if you’re in the state, sign up with your email for volunteering opportunities.
Now for the bad news.
Well, in all honesty, it’s less about being bad news, and more a warning that we might need to be more strategic. We now have nine Senate races that are in the Toss-Up or Lean Republican column (AZ, CO, ME, NC, GA (2), IA, MT, KS) but a LOT of the money that we’re raising for Democratic candidates is not going to those races.
Small donations have resulted in over $20M being raised for the Kentucky and South Carolina races. That huge haul is understandably fueled by our desire to get Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham out of the Senate. But their races are rated Likely Republican. We have good candidates in both races, but these two Senate seats simply aren’t as competitive as the other nine.
I do think Democrats should compete for every seat, but I also know that the collective power of our small donations can only go so far. And the fact of the matter is, the other nine races are more winnable. I think it is strategic to make sure we are funding those races first.
That said, I’d love your suggestions as to how we can fuel more money to the nine most winnable races. What makes you donate? What would help you make the case to your social media followers to donate to these other races?
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Categories: Elections, Explainers
I’ve been waiting to see who wins the primaries. Seems like once voters in a state have chosen a candidate THAT is the person to support (e.g. Amy McGrath in KY I’ve heard from folks there that she isn’t particularly popular, lost a house race already, and is seen as a carpetbagger – but all her funding from outside is making it hard for native Kentuckyians to compete.)
I’m definitely going to work to get Susan Collins out given that it’s an easy drive to go and knock on doors in ME. Beyond that – not sure yet. Hoping to get more clarity from people who know more than I do, and maybe some clarity from polling in the various states. (e.g. McGrath also shares data from polls in her FB ads, but when I look on 538 there isn’t anything listed there so that makes me a bit suspicious.)
-Nicola (when I comment I’m already signed into my business wordpress account, hence the somewhat odd handle 🙂 )
Thanks, Nicola. I’ve heard similar things about the KY race. I’m trying to think of a way to funnel money to these races even before there is a final candidate, although having one will makes things a lot easier.
TokyoSand!!! Listen i think biden/abrams ticket could definitely put georgia in play
Democrats must emerge or pull off a last miracle in deep red states like
mississippi south carolina and kentucky
We don’t need to win those states to win the White House. It’d be great to flip the KY and SC Senate seats, but I’d really rather focus on the 7 contests that are more winnable. To each, his own.
Biden/Abrams 2020 must put both georgia senate seats in play
I think teresa tomlinson and raphael warnock could do it.