Sunday Reading: Looking Into the 2020 Crystal Ball

Everyone wants to know what will happen in 2020, so election experts are looking at the information we already have to at least guess at the shape of the next election. Here are a few articles I found interesting, alarming, or informative.

Is It Realistic to Abolish the Electoral College?

This article doesn’t detail the pros and cons of the Electoral College, but instead looks at the two most talked-about solutions to the EC and discusses how likely they are.

Third Party Spoilers Are the Whole Deal, People

Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo brings up what he thinks is likely to be the deciding factor in the 2020 presidential election: a third party candidate.

Trump’s Base Isn’t Enough

Trump’s base is loyal but too small to win the election on their own. Trump needs a crucial group of voters to break for him: the voters who approve of his handling of the economy but disapprove of him otherwise. If that group swings towards him, this could be a very tight race.

Does anyone understand the 2020 race? This scholar nailed the blue wave — here’s her forecast

The woman who predicted the 2018 House wins sat down with Salon to talk about a mistaken notion of how the Democrats actually won the midterms, how they still underperformed in many places, and what she predicts for 2020 and 2022.

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