What History Tells Us About Who Will Win 2020

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Why are there so many polls? Polls are popular because everyone wants to know now who is going to win the 2020 presidential election. Each new poll gives us a little glimpse into what the future may hold.

And with Trump holding his re-election launch rally last night in Orlando, the question of will he or won’t he get re-elected is on everyone’s minds.

What if we ignore the polls? What does history tell us will happen?


No president has been denied re-election when there hasn’t been a recession in the two years prior to the election. However, no president with approval rates as low as President Trump’s has been re-elected either.” (via PoliticalWire)

That’s what is tricky about 2020. No matter what, history will be made in 2020. Trump will either lose the election even though there isn’t a recession, or, he’ll get re-elected despite his terrible approval rates.

The truth is that we don’t know and won’t know until all the results are in after Election Day. My advice is this: Don’t let any polls or media stories or anything else take you off-course with your organizing. Whether it’s every day or every week, take some sort of action to build towards the result we all want: Trump out as president, and one of our terrific Democratic candidates sitting in the Oval Office instead. Plus a few hundred other flipped seats all over the country, of course.

There are many ways to get involved, and that is a topic we return to over and over again here at PoliticalCharge. Subscribe to get our daily posts, and let the community here know what you are doing in the comments. Whatever you do — take action!

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4 replies

  1. I’m a member of IndivisibleSonomaCounty. I run a group of postcard writers that meet weekly. We write 400-500 cards a week to mainly at this time disenfranchised people of color voters in NC and VA. Independent young women in AZ to ask them to Vote for women’s rights. Among many other issues. Closer to primaries we will be writing to specific campaigns. We expect to write 50,000 cards this year. 2020 will be huge. We also write to our MOC’s about issues that are currently important.

  2. You ignore the possibility of a recession, despite evidence that the conditions are lining up to create one.

    • Could we still have a recession? Yes. The historical point, though, was if a recession had started 2 years before the election. We’re past that point being at only 17 months out.

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