Governors’ elections: Which seats are flippable and which are at risk

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Today, the Democrats only have 16 governors’ mansions.

In the 2018 midterms, there are governor races in 36 states and 3 territories. They are almost evenly split between incumbents who are running again and seats where the incumbent either can’t or isn’t running for re-election.

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Potential GOP seats we could flip:

Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
Maine
Michigan
Nevada
New Mexico
Ohio
Tennessee
Wisconsin

Cook Political Report has the governors race ratings (toss-up, etc.) and FiveThirtyEight did a feature on why these races are flippable here.

Danger! Here are the most vulnerable Democratic seats we need to protect:
Alaska (I)
Colorado
Connecticut
Minnesota
Oregon
Rhode Island

Remember, half of the governor races this year don’t have an incumbent. Incumbents are harder to unseat, so that creates a lot of opportunities this year. The big question is, will Democrats turn people out for the general elections? There has certainly been a lot of enthusiasm in the primary and special elections this year, but historically, Democrats have done a terrible job at midterms.

There’s a lot of work to do to flip these governors’ mansions. Get to know the Democratic candidates running in your state and volunteer!

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Categories: Explainers

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